Swift allocation of 700MHz and 2.5GHz spectrum for LTE and other mobile broadband technologies is key to securing A$143 billion in productivity benefits from 2013-2020, according to a new report from Network Strategies, writes Communications Day this week.

And the firm has warned that should spectrum contention set back the adoption of next-gen mobile technologies by even a year, the opportunity cost could be counted in the tens of billions.

Meanwhile, Access Economics has echoed those spectrum recommendations with a report of its own, digging into the macroeconomics of mobile telephony. The company estimated that mobile telecoms contributed A$17.4 billion to GDP through 2008-9 alone and has positioned more spectrum allotments as key to continuing the trend.

Officially launched today (Wednesday) at Parliament House by Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, both reports were commissioned by the Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association, which also contributed confidential data to the researchers. They come at a time when the industry is clamouring for certainty on spectrum, with the 2.5GHz and 700MHz bands particularly in the spotlight.

In ‘2.5GHz in Australia: The future deployment of mobile broadband strategies’, Network Strategies predicated its forecasts on the projection that by 2020 there would be just under 20 million broadband subscription on handsets, plus another 6.3 million datacards and surging M2M communications. Of the A$143 billion gross productivity benefits it estimated from mobile broadband over the seven years to 2020, A$62 billion was tipped to come from LTE – assuming that the commercial launch of the technology over 2.5GHz took place in 2013, with 700MHz being pressed into service for the technology a year later. And these were conservative estimates, based on benchmark productivity data from 2005 not allowing for newer applications.

However, if next-gen mobile broadband penetration were set back by a year by uncertain spectrum availability, Network Strategies indicated drastic consequences. “This has the effect of reducing the productivity benefit for mobile broadband by A$5.5 billion over the period 2013 to 2020, and for LTE bynearly A$17 billion,” said the firm. “Our ability to realise those benefits will depend upon the ability of the mobile operators to deliver mobile broadband services both cost-effectively and in a timely manner to meet the anticipated future demand.”

In ‘Economic contribution of mobile telecommunications in Australia,’ Access Economics took a broader view of current trends, estimating that the mobile telecoms industry contributed A$17.4 billion to GDP in 2008-9 – A$3 billion up from a similar report prepared by the company two years ago.

But while the direct contribution was down slightly on the firm’s last set of figures for 2006-7 at A$6.7 billion, the indirect effect – the flow-on value of services provided by mobile telecoms to other sectors – had shot up to A$10.7 billion. And this was also a conservative estimate; Access Economics’ modelling only captured the benefits from enhanced connectivity for workers using handsets, excluding machine-to-machine and laptop benefits, which it suggested would also be of significant value.

“The contribution that the mobile telecommunications industry makes to the Australian economy is substantial and is predicted to grow rapidly,” concluded the report. “In order to harness the full potential benefits of mobile telecommunications, including mobile data, going forward it is necessary to ensure that the industry is able to access adequate additional radiofrequency spectrum.”

AMTA CEO Chris Althaus said the reports were in line with the forecasts of other organisations like Cisco and analyst firm Ovum, and took them as a call to arms for the government to provide certainty on spectrum soon.

“[Mobile broadband] is one of our key enabling technologies for connectivity and productivity,” he told CommsDay. “The message is: demand is strong and getting stronger, the applications and services are in high demand.... for the infrastructure we need to get this into the future, we need to have some certainty of process so we can plan.”

“The government’s taken the first step, which is recognising the potential and the need to allocate the infrastructure, but we really do need to keep pace with the follow up process to hit the deadlines,” he added. “2013, 2014 is a very short time away when it comes to spectrum planning; we need to keep up, not only to service our domestic demand but to keep pace globally as well.