CommSec says AMTA’s mobile phone shipment figures for May 2009 were showing signs of cautious consumer optimism.

CommSec Chief Economist Craig James said the shipment figures were the first key indicator of retail spending for May and confirmed that consumers were maintaining an approach of “cautious optimism”.

According to the industry’s official figures compiled by Informark, mobile phone handset shipments this year have held up well despite tough economic conditions, according to the latest official industry figures.

The Informark figures for May 2009 record 737,822 handset shipments compared to 797,430 for the same month in 2008 - this is a fall of 7.5%.

However, the cumulative total for handset shipments this calendar year is line ball with the same five-month period last year.

There were 3,544,788 shipments from January to May 2009 compared to 3,558, 167 in the same period for 2008. This is a fall of just 0.4%.

The figures are collected for AMTA by Informark and record the number of shipments – not sales. Handset shipments do not correspond with sales because Australia is a transshipment point for some handsets that arrive and are then shipped to other destinations in the South Pacific.

Mr James in CommSec’s Economics Insight bulletin said the mobile phone shipments (sales) in May were down 7.5 per cent on the record result a year ago, but shipments for the past three months were actually 3.4 per cent higher than last year.

CommSec then posed the question: what does the data show and what does it mean?

Sales of mobile phones aren’t going through the roof, but they certainly aren’t languishing at historically-low levels either. Overall consumers appear to be displaying a mood of ‘cautious optimism’, with lingering concerns about the job market probably the main factor constraining retail spending.

In May, the Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association reported that 737,822 mobile phones were shipped to stores (in effect, mobile phone sales), down 7.5 per cent on a year ago. But sales for the past three months were actually up 3.4 per cent on the same period of 2008, continuing the consistent improvement in trend terms over the past nine months. The annual growth rate of this smoothed measure is at 12-month highs.

The figures collected for AMTA by Informark record the number of shipments, rather than sales. Because Australia is a transshipment point, some handsets that arrive in the country are shipped to other destinations in the South Pacific. But while figures on handset shipments don’t fully translate to sales, they are nevertheless a useful proxy.

After peaking with annual sales of just over 10 million units in the year to May 2008, mobile phone sales have retreated to an annual rate of just over 8.8 million units. The annual rate of sales slipped from 8.88 million in the year to April to 8.82 million in the year to May. In the first five months of 2009, shipments were just 0.4 per cent down on a year ago.

In coming months consumer spending will be supported by the July 1 tax cut, improved confidence levels and better job market conditions. But technology goods will likely face some competition for the consumer dollar from household-related spending given signs of increased property sales and dwelling construction.